Market Views

Market Commentary

April 4th 2009:

On Friday, both the NASDAQ 100 index and the emerging markets index (EEM) broke into bull markets, on both a daily and weekly basis. Though the other indices (DJ, SPX, etc.) would also need to confirm (go into bull markets as well) in order for this to be an official bull market, we can consider that a bull market is very possibly in the making. If this turns out to be true, the rally will likely not last more than a year or so.

On a separate note, it is very possible that gold has gone into a bear market (the chart action is questionable). There is a strong economic argument that would dictate that as money flows into other asset prices, gold will deflate.

April 23rd 2009:

Contrary to previous concerns, gold has not gone into a bear market, and has just confirmed the continuation of a bull market in gold. It should be expected that gold willy rally back to it’s highs.

May 4th, 2009:

Natural Resources, as measured by iShares’ Goldman Sachs Natural Resource Index (IGE), officially entered into a bull market today.

May 8th, 2009

Commodities, as measured by the PowerShares commodity index (DBC) unofficially entered into a bull market today.

Also, though not technically an official signal, non-dollar developed currencies vs. the dollar, as measured by PowerShares Dollar Bearish Index (UDN), made a significant recent high today which might well portend the post-correction, continued bull market for non-dollar developed currencies (new bear market for the dollar).

May 26, 2009

World (ex-us) real estate, as measured by iShares Property Index Fund (WPS), entered into a bull market today.

Also, the Europe, as measured by the iShares Europe 350 Index (IEV) entered into a bull market today (IEV is, however measured in dollars, and entered a bull market mostly because of a falling dollar).

May 28th, 2009

Commodities, as measured by the PowerShares commodity index (DBC) confirmed the existence of a bull market today.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials remain in bear markets.

June 1, 2009

The S&P entered into a bull market today. Once the Dow Jones confirms a bull market as well, the U.S. as a whole will be in a bull market.

No matter what official market action is taking place at the moment, one should remember that a long-term-type bottom has not been put in place. I would expect the current rally to last somewhere between six months to a year and a half before turning down again to test the lows.

(However, from a technical perspective, one could argue that the current bounce is only very temporary (near the end now) and is only a small breather before the market plummets PAST the previous lows. From a technical perspective ONLY I would expect all of this years gains to be wiped out by year end.)

October 28, 2009

The financial sector, as measured by the SPDR ETF (XLF), went into a bear market on a daily and weekly basis today. World (ex-us) real estate, as measured by iShares Property Index Fund (WPS), also entered a bear market on a daily, but not weekly, basis.

March 10th, 2010

The financial sector, as measured by the SPDR ETF (XLF), made a higher high today, making the previous bear market indication null and void.

May 5th, 2010

The European markets, as measured by the ishares 350 Index Fund (IEV), entered a bear market today. However, this index is priced in dollars, not Euros: as the dollar has been gaining ground against the euro for several months, the movement we see largely reflects a currency, not an equity movement, and should be ignored.

May 6th, 2010

World real estate (ishares, WPS) entered a bear market today. This could largely be driven by currency moves, however.

May 20th, 2010

Emerging markets (ishares, EEM) went into a bear market today, as did Latin America (ishares, ILF). Additionally, the volatility index (VXX) entered a bull market today (a bad omen for equities).

June 7th, 2010

The S&P 500 is now in an official, full-fledged bear market (on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis).

Kel Kelly @ January 3, 2009